FP&A Christmas mince pies: how CFOs and FP&A bake better budgets

When I coach CFOs, I often say this:

You are the head chef.
Your FP&A team is your kitchen crew.
The budget, forecast and insight work is your Christmas mince pies.

If the chef and crew are in sync, the pies come out golden and the whole family raves.
If they are not, you burn the base, the filling leaks, and everyone quietly reaches for the custard instead.

This note is for CFOs, founders, finance leaders and hiring managers who want budgets and forecasts that feel calm, credible and useful, not like a seasonal panic.

Over the past twenty-plus years across retail, FMCG, travel, professional services and public sector finance, I have spent most of my time in this kitchen: leading FP&A, modernising finance systems and building board and management packs that actually get used. The patterns are the same, whether you are running a national advisory firm or an in-flight retail business.

Even if you are reading this in March, the mince pie test still works. It is just a simple way to check how your CFO and FP&A team work together.

TL;DR

CFOs set the menu, taste and timing.
FP&A turn that into ingredients, recipes and reliable pies.
Good collaboration means calmer cycles, better decisions and far fewer nasty surprises.
Red flags show up as noisy cycles, wild swings in numbers and low trust from the business.
Both CFOs and FP&A can reset the kitchen by changing how they brief, test, challenge and debrief.
If you are hiring or supporting a CFO, this is what a healthy finance kitchen looks like.

The CFO as head chef

A good CFO sets the tone in the kitchen. They do not peel apples or roll pastry all day. Their job is to:

Decide the menu
What are we actually baking this year? Which business priorities matter most? Which metrics are non-negotiable?
Set the taste and standard
How do we measure success? What does a reasonable budget, forecast, or board pack feel like? How accurate, how early, how commercial.
Set the rhythm and oven temperature
When do we plan, re-forecast and debrief? How hot do we run the process? Where do we allow experimentation, and where do we expect tight control?
Plate up for the board and investors
Turn numbers into decisions. Frame trade-offs. Make sure directors can see both risk and opportunity without drowning in detail.

In practice, that means being very clear about what you want from FP&A. Not just “a budget” or “a pack”, but the business questions you need answered and the decisions that need to be made.

FP&A as the kitchen crew

FP&A turns strategy into something you can put on the table.

They:

Translate recipes into shopping lists
Drivers, assumptions and scenarios. Headcount plans, sales funnels, project pipelines.
Prep the ingredients
Clean data from finance, HR and operational systems. Align actuals, budgets, and forecasts into a single source of truth.
Test and tweak
Sensitivities, scenarios and what-ifs. “What happens if input costs move, a project slips, or demand is softer than we thought?”
Serve plates to different guests
Execs, board, operations managers, sales leaders. Each group needs the same story told in slightly different ways.

When the partnership is strong, the CFO trusts FP&A to own this prep and bring honest recommendations, not just numbers. FP&A know what “good” looks like for their CFO and the board, and they feel safe to say “this batch is not ready yet”.

When the recipe goes wrong

When CFO and FP&A are out of sync, the kitchen gets messy very quickly:

Budget and forecast cycles feel like panic seasons, not a steady rhythm.
Last-minute rewrites for the board destroy weekends.
FP&A are buried in reporting with no time for real analysis.
Business leaders ignore finance packs or build their own numbers on the side.

In mince pie terms:

No one is sure what recipe they are using.
Ingredients are added at random.
Oven temperature keeps changing.
The chef blames the crew, the crew blame the recipe, and the guests are not impressed.

What a healthy kitchen feels like

When the relationship between CFO and FP&A is healthy, it feels like a busy but happy kitchen before Christmas lunch.

Signs your FP&A kitchen is in good shape

Shared rhythm: forecast cycles are predictable, not surprise sprints.
Clear taste tests: the CFO asks, “Does this pass our margin rule of thumb?” rather than “Can you add ten more slides?”
Honest conversation: FP&A can say “this assumption feels thin” and the CFO can say “this is clever but will confuse the operations manager”.
Visible impact: commercial leaders ask for FP&A input early on deals and investments, not after the fact.

The pies come out on time, cooked through, and in the right ballpark. They might not be picture perfect every time, but there are no nasty surprises.

Red flags for CFOs and fixes

Here are practical warning signs and how to respond to them.

Red flag in the kitchen	How it shows up in FP&A	Better habit to bake in
You only see FP&A at budget time	The team disappears for most of the year and then reappears in a panic during budget season.	Set a clear year-round forecast rhythm with standing review dates and regular business partnering time.
Forecast meetings are slide parades, not conversations	You spend an hour being read a deck and never get to the real questions.	Start every session with a simple three-sentence story: what happened, why it happened and what decision is needed today. Then flip through the slides.
Nobody can explain variances without reading the pack	If you cover up the page, no one can explain the movement in plain terms. Language.	Ask FP&A to explain the story in a few sentences first, then walk through details in an appendix for those who want them.
Forecasts swing each month wildly, with no driver story	The numbers jump around, but no one talks about the underlying drivers.	Agree on a small set of core drivers and review those with the business each cycle. Tune the forecast around those drivers.
Business leaders see FP&A as the number police	Eye rolls when FP&A arrive, defensive behaviour and side models in spreadsheets you never see.	Reframe FP&A as decision support. Put analysts into the project and deal meetings early so they can help shape plans, not just judge them.
FP&A never challenge you	The team nods through aggressive targets and risky bets without pushing back.	Invite dissent. Ask what would worry them about the plan if they were in your seat and reward honest challenge.

You do not need to fix all of these at once. Even changing one or two Habits will lift the mood in the kitchen.

How FP&A can work better with their CFO

This cuts both ways. FP&A teams can do a lot from their side to make life easier for their CFO and the business.

Start with the business question

Anchor every pack to a single clear decision rather than a template.

In my own teams, I ask for one line at the top of every deck: “The decision today is...” It keeps everyone honest.

Share your own taste tests

Be open about which assumptions feel thin and where you are confident.

Make it obvious which numbers you trust and what would change your view. That builds trust and invites the CFO into the thinking, not just the final number.

Be clear on assumptions and limits

Call out where you have data, where you are estimating and where you do not know.

A CFO will usually forgive a gap if you name it early. They will not forgive finding out after the board meeting that the gap was hidden.

Use fewer slides and more stories

Lead with a short narrative, then let people dive into detail if they want.

Aim for a one-page narrative that covers what happened, why it happened and what you recommend. Put detailed tables and bridges in the appendix for those who want to go deeper.

When I work with FP&A teams, these are often the four habits we start with. They change how a CFO experiences the team in the room.

How CFOs can bring the best out of FP&A

CFOs also have a significant impact on how FP&A show up.

Be clear on what good looks like
Share examples of the packs, models and conversations you value. Talk about tone, not just templates.
Protect thinking time
Do not turn every forecast into a last-minute Friday night job. Set earlier cut-offs so the team can think, not just type.
Bring FP&A into strategy early
Involve them when you are shaping strategy, pricing or investment options, not just when you need a model to back a decision already made.
Back your team in the room
Suppose an analyst has done solid work, back them when they present it. Do not undercut them in front of the business.
Reward insight, not just precision
Celebrate clear stories, wise driver choices and practical recommendations, not just a perfect tie back to the cent.
Use tools and AI to reduce noise, not add it
Apply automation and AI to clean data and standard reporting, so FP&A can spend their energy on scenarios, decisions and coaching the business.

In roles leading FP&A and finance systems work, I have seen these simple habits cut weeks off budget cycles and halve the number of last-minute board pack rewrites. They also make your finance function a far more attractive place for high-calibre analysts and managers to build their careers.

The mince pie test

Here is a simple way to check your own kitchen. Use it as a quiet self-assessment before the following season.

The mince pie test for your CFO and FP&A partnership

Before you start the next budget or forecast round:

Can your CFO and FP&A lead both explain, in their own words, what success looks like for this cycle?
Do you have a short written brief that covers timing, priorities, scope and any hard constraints?
Have you agreed which drivers matter most and what “good enough” looks like for accuracy and detail?

While you are in the thick of it:

Do forecast and budget meetings feel like working sessions, not slide readings?
Are there honest conversations about assumptions, trade-offs and risk, not just number edits?
Do business leaders know when to expect updates and what you want from them at each step?

At the end of the cycle:

Can you and your FP&A lead explain the main variances and lessons learned in three sentences each?
Have you captured what you will do differently next time in a short debrief, not just moved on exhausted?
Do people still want to be in the kitchen with you next year?

If the honest answer is “yes” at each stage, your next budget or forecast round will feel calmer, your board will feel more confident, and your FP&A team will have space to do their best work.

If the answer is “not yet”, that is not failure. It is simply your signal to adjust the recipe and nudge the way you and your FP&A team work together.

Quick kitchen health quiz

A short one for CFOs and FP&A leads.

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If two or more questions land in the “needs work” column, it might be time for a conversation between you, your FP&A lead and the kitchen crew about how you want the next season to run.

This is the same playbook I use in Numerroo, my FP&A and AI forecasting lab, and in fractional-CFO-style engagements with growing businesses. It is also how I would run the finance kitchen in a full-time CFO role in a consumer, FMCG, or retail environment.

If this feels familiar and you would like help resetting your own finance kitchen, whether as a founder, CFO or hiring manager, I would be happy to talk.